Sotheby’s CEO Charles Stewart said the art market has entered a new phase this fall, with supply finally “catching up with the demand” after months of strong bidder activity.
The comment, made recently to CNBC, comes as New York’s marquee auction houses prepare for sales expected to totalmore than $1.4 billion, a jump of roughly50 percentfrom last year and a possible turning point after three consecutive years of declines.
The November auctions will test whether renewed confidence from consignors and buyers can sustain a broader recovery. This season’s centerpiece is the estate ofLeonard Lauder, whose 55 works at Sotheby’s are valued at more than$400 million, led by Gustav Klimt’sPortrait of Elisabeth Lederer, estimated above$150 million, and two Klimt landscapes carrying estimates of more than$70 millionand$80 million. Sotheby’s will also offer six bronze Matisse sculptures and an Edvard MunchMidsummer Night.
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Works fromJay and Cindy Pritzker’scollection add another$120 millionin estimated value, including a Van Gogh still life priced above$40 million.
At Christie’s, highlights include a MonetNymphéasand David Hockney’sChristopher Isherwood and Don Bachardy, each estimated at$40 million to $60 million, alongside a Mark Rothko expected to achieve more than$50 million.
Advisors say the combination of rare material and stronger macroeconomic conditions—lower interest rates, a buoyant stock market, and recent wealth creation—has helped entice sellers back to auction. “What we’ve seen more recently is the supply catching up with the demand,” Stewart told CNBC. “Something’s definitely shifted in the last two months.”
Sotheby’s also enters the week with added momentum from the debut of its new global headquarters in the Breuer Building on Madison Avenue, which has drawn more than10,000 visitorssince opening last week. Stewart said consignors have responded to the increased visibility.
Still, significant pressure remains at the top of the market. Sales of works priced above$10 millionfell44 percentin the first half of 2025 compared with 2024 and remain72 percentbelow the post-pandemic peak in 2022, according to Bank of America Private Bank. No lot surpassed$50 millionat auction in the first half of the year, down from 13 sales above that level in 2022.
By contrast, the lower end of the market continues to strengthen: dealers with annual turnover under$250,000reported a17 percentrise in sales last year, while those above$10 millionsaw a9 percentdrop.
Whether next week’s auctions confirm a true rebound or simply a brief correction, the split between the trophy market and the thriving lower tiers suggests the next phase of growth may not look much like the last one. Still, even a strong week won’t resolve the deeper question hanging over the season: whether the market’s future belongs to trophy-hunting megacollectors, or to a rising cohort reshaping demand from the ground up.